World: Politics, Social and Economics

F.K.Baganoff et al.

Global banks face a $5.8 trillion rollover by 2012   "Banks around the world must refinance more than $US5 trillion ($5.8 trillion) of debt in the coming three years, a massive rollover that poses threats to financial stability and growth ..." (site accessed Jun 2010)
See also: Big banks face financial doomsday in 2012   " ... A confluence of factors are coming to a head: First, the credit ratings of large Wall St banks like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley ... are all under siege due to aspects of the financial reform bill, which was passed by the Senate last week. Second, that bill will restrict their lucrative derivatives and trading businesses, which is sure to put a crimp on their earnings. Finally, the vast amounts of government-backed cheap capital that these banks raised in the financial markets in 2009, will all have to be refinanced in 2012 at interest rates that could be as much as five times higher than those they got last year ..." (site accessed May 2010)

New Financial world 2012 and the End of Days Prophecy   " ... I would like to point out that I did not look at the timing of the USD system crash by asking if it would correlate with 2012. No, rather I worked for years on my USD expectations and when it would come into severe trouble in the bond markets, and that time came to be right at 2012! Then I started really looking into this prophecy stuff for our readers. I am almost an expert at Biblical Prophecy, so I had one big part of the prophecy puzzle already in my head ... " (site accessed Jun 2010)

Why the euro will reach parity with the dollar by 2012   " ... Since the euro peaked 1.5893 to the dollar on July 7, 2008, it has plunged a massive 36%. I believe it will reach parity with the dollar before long. With budget cuts and tax raises looming over the next three years, it’s a near certainty that the E.U. will be forced to keep interest rates low. This means that U.S. interest rates should catch up with European rates ..." (site accessed May 2010)

Summit on nuke-free mid East in 2012?   " ... In the closing days of the month-long NPT Review Conference at the UN, which ends Friday, a final draft document under consideration calls for a conference of Middle East states in 2012 to jump-start negotiations for a region free of weapons of mass destruction. In reference to Israel, the draft “calls on all states in the Middle East that have not yet done so to accede to the treaty as non-nuclear weapon states so as to achieve its universality at an early date.” (site accessed May 2010)

7 shelters to save you if 2012 calls doom   "Self-protection is something that we all take seriously. Nostradamus’s 2012 predictions and similar prophesies by the Mayan calendar are making people believe that the world is about to end just a couple of years from now. While there are some who blatantly reject these predictions, there are some who’re too seriously about them and as an answer have designed several vaults or shelters that will save life on earth. Here is a list of seven such shelters that can save life post-apocalypse .." (site accessed Apr 2010)

36 predictions for the world: 2010-12   " ... here's what I see coming in 2010 - 2012. This is based on "educated guesses" about where current trends may lead us. This is not some sort of psychic prediction exercise; it's based entirely on observation and forward thinking ..." (site accessed Feb 2010)

Is the world going to end in 2012? - Poll   Cast your vote! (site accessed Jan 2010)

Gold could more than quadruple by 2012   "Robert McEwen, chairman of U.S. Gold Corp. says gold prices will more than quadruple to $5,000 by 2012 ...He says investors will reallocate capital to real money as the dollar loses its viability and money printing causes money to move into gold." (site accessed Jan 2010)
See also: Stock Doom and Gold Boom through 2012   " ... the economy is going to serve up a big ol' heaping plate of white-hot doom at least through 2012. The good news is you can protect your portfolio and even profit handsomely. I'll give you my picks. First, let's look at five forces that I think will kill any real rally in the S&P 500 ..." sean brodrick, (site accessed Mar 2009)
See also: Gold to gain through 2012  "Gold may average higher for each of the next three years and climb to a record driven by increased demand and a declining dollar as governments ramp up spending to battle the global recession, according to Morgan Stanley ..." (site accessed Jan 2009)

Banks face $7 trillion debt maturities by end 2012   " As much as $7 trillion of debt piled up by banks falls due by the end of 2012, which could force them to refinance their borrowings at higher cost, the Wall Street Journal said, citing a Moody's Investors Service report ..." (site accessed Nov 09)

Morgan Stanley ups oil forecast to $105 in 2012   "Morgan Stanley has raised its forecast of U.S. crude oil price to $105 a barrel in 2012 from $95 due to tightening spare capacity, the U.S. bank said in a research note seen on Monday ... "We believe that prices will need to move higher to ration demand as the world struggles to find enough supply," it said, adding that the research was based on the bank's proprietary database of more than 460 fields expected to come online through 2015 ..." (site accessed Sep 2009)
See also: Gas and oil prices to double by 2012   " ... Jeff Rubin, chief economist at CIBC World Markets says oil production will barely grow over the next five years, edging up barely more than 1-million barrels a day over the next three years, and only half a million barrels a day between 2010 and 2012. The increases will fall far short of demand, forcing the price of crude oil to surge to US$150 a barrel by 2010, and over US$200 a barrel by 2012 ..." (site accessed Apr 2008)
See also: The oil crisis of 2012?   " ... Putting current world oil production at about 82 million barrels a day and placing world capacity at about 18 million barrels more, he wondered when demand would exceed this point. West mentioned two dates—five years from now, and 2020—but treated this scenario as inevitable, despairing over “the geopolitical ramifications.” Indeed, while describing global warming as a serious problem, West argued that the impending supply-demand crisis is more urgent: “The fact of the matter is, there’s a high probability that there’s going to be a production crunch . . . before Bangladesh gets flooded.” ..." (site accessed Oct 2007)
See also: The future of oil prices  Chart showing oil prices from January 2007 - December 2012. The author, Hal Finney, states: "The obvious message of this chart in terms of future oil prices is that they are expected to be relatively stable. The whole next six years stay within the range of $60-$70 per barrel. This is unlikely to be consistent with a significant oil shortage in that time frame. The markets seem to be telling us that Peak Oil is not a near-term concern." This posting has provoked a long discussion from other correspondents. (site accessed Jan 2007)
See also: Demand for oil could exceed supply by 2012   
" ... Demand for oil is continuing to grow, and threatens to burn up excess oil capacity by 2012, according to a new report released today by the International Energy Agency. Excess capacity in OPEC is forecast to drop by 2 million gallons per day by 2009, and to virtually zero out by 2012..."

See also: Nearly $25billion in deepwater expenditures by 2012   ... " The deepwater oil and gas industry is set for continued growth through to 2012, with over 30 percent growth forecast for the 2008-2012 period when compared with the previous five years ... Africa is expected to be the leading deepwater development area over the 2008-2012 period, accounting for nearly 40 percent of the global deepwater spend" (site accessed Oct 2007)

Europe could face Iranian missiles by 2012   " ... Iran could produce ballistic missiles capable of reaching most of Europe within four years if it carried out a crash development effort, Israel's former top missile defense official said yesterday ... "If they push it -- put all the budget, put all the engineers -- three or four years" is how long Iran would need to increase the range of its current ballistic missile to nearly 2,500 miles, placing London within reach, Uzi Rubin said. "Will they do it? I'm not sure." (site accessed Aug 2009)

The next meltdown will come in 2012   " ... "Without easy credit creation a true bubble cannot occur. That is why so many bubbles have their origins in the sins of omission and commission of central banks." So the next bubble (and meltdown) is virtually certain, thanks to Washington's $23.7 trillion explosion in debt. Revolution coming with next meltdown. Americans are not going to put up with the "Wall Street Conspiracy" ripping off investors and taxpayers much longer. Wall Street got rich sticking us with mountains of debt for generations to come. Expect a major house-cleaning, a second American Revolution. We predicted the "Great Depression 2" around 2012. (site accessed Aug 2009)

China's Yuan No. 3 global currency by 2012   "The Chinese yuan could overtake the Japanese yen to become the third most important international currency used in trade by 2012. Or so HSBC economist Qu Hongbin thinks. That’s a far sooner than most people expect ..." (site accessed July 2009)

Personal finance: 2012 and economic trends   "We are entering a period of enormous transition — financially, politically, spiritually. Everyday, we see evidence that old-school business and government are collapsing. And we see signs of a new era. According to many experts, this new era begins in the year 2012 .... As we enter this new era, we each have a choice as to how to live. Your current financial portfolio may be in shambles, but you will have new ways to build wealth in years to come ... " Helen Kaiao Chang, (site accessed June 2009)

Aston Martin to enter F1 in 2012   "Aston Martin is to enter F1 from 2012 as a fully-fledged manufacturer entrant, according to a report in Autocar magazine. The company will put its name on a new F1 team to be launched by Prodrive. The new F1 team announced will run as Prodrive in 2010, before being rebranding as Aston Martin in 2012 ..." (site accessed May 2009)

Chrysler forecasts profit in 2012   " ... Chrysler revealed it lost nearly $17 billion last year but predicted it can return to profitability by 2012 if it can exit bankruptcy quickly and form an alliance with Fiat ..." (site accessed May 2009)

Obama in 2012, after he fails to deal with Iran   " ...What went wrong? Where did Obama go astray? In retrospect, the answer is clear and simple. In the summer of 2009, the president had to make the most courageous decision of his life: to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. ... only such a decision could have saved his legacy and advanced the noble values he believed in. Only that decision could have led to a comprehensive peace in the Middle East. If Obama had decided three years ago to impose a political-economic siege on Tehran, he would have changed the course of history. The Roosevelt of the 21st century would have prevented regional chaos, a worldwide nuclear arms race and an American decline. (site accessed May 2009)

Population Reduction 2012 - The Illuminati Agenda Exposed "Videos exposing plans of the Illuminati elite to discard 90% of the world population by 2012 using wars or other means to enforce the New Secular World Order." (site accessed April 2009)

Islamic finance assets seen at $1.6 trillion by 2012   " ... Assets of the global Islamic finance industry are estimated to grow to around $1.6 trillion by 2012 ... Islamic finance is a nascent and diverse industry, in which many products well-established in conventional banking are still being developed. ... It is based on sharia, or Islamic law, which is open to interpretation and caters to investors who want to avoid paying or earning interest, viewed as usury under Islamic law ..." (site accessed April 2009)

Global cement market to reach 3.77 billion tonnes by 2012  " ... Recent years have seen the cement industry grow dynamically with most of the actions taking place in emerging economies. Despite the ongoing financial crisis the global economy is facing, the need for housing and continued government investments in infrastructure development by emerging economies is offsetting downturn in mature markets. Though, at present, demand is growing, but at a decelerated pace, the phase is momentary. Long-term projections indicate healthy demand growths, as world economy stabilizes and construction activity picks up across global markets into the next decade ..." (site accessed Apr 2009)

Crystal ball 2012: The history of stranger chats  "It all started in March-April 2009, when the first stranger chat, omegle, gained enough users to become an internet fad ...Nowadays, all big dating sites have stranger chats, but true to their roots they are a bit different ... They use exactly the same algorithm to calculate compatability, and the users tell the server how much they are ready to wait. If they are ready to wait 10 minutes, they can expect pretty likeminded company..." (site accessed April 2009)

Banks - The Great Unwinding 2009-12   " ... Banks as we know them will cease to exist in the coming years to 2012. While we will still see banks on the corner and on the web, see debit and credit cards in our wallets, the organisations behind those facades will not be the same as before. These organisations will be engaged in a desperate shift to deleverage – to reduce debt ..." (site accessed Feb 2009)

Disney in 2012   " ... The biggest changes have actually been taking place inside the parks, as technological advances generate more efficient load times and customized experiences. For instance, your kid's favorite character actually comes looking for you, instead of the other way around. Interactive in-line diversions on moving walkways make queuing more enjoyable. Only disoriented foreigners wait in line for the counter-service eateries, given the ease of ordering food and snacks through Disney's wireless devices ..." (site accessed Jan 2009)

Google in 2012  " ... As dark as things got early in 2009, the dot-com rock star was simply planting the seeds of online advertising that it would harvest in the future. No one receives a daily paper anymore. They download it, often with matching Google ads. No one adheres to the same television programming schedule. The on-demand beauty of digital delivery provides flexibility there. Google rocks in 2012, even if it seems stuck between a rock and a hard place in 2009. See you later." (site accessed Jan 2009)

Breaking News from 2012: Stocks recover from financial crisis  "Fund managers have predicted that the recovery from the financial crisis will be the fastest in recent history, according to a survey by investment consultant Watson Wyatt, arguing that it will take three years for equity markets to climb back to historical return levels ..." (site accessed Jan 2009)

Ten Economic Predictions for 2009 (with a reference to 2012)  " ... Those with metaphysical inclinations may also be interested to know that the 3-5 year time horizon forecasts that we reach a bottom somewhere around the year 2012 ... No matter your beliefs, we are in for a period of significant change that will require reflection, adjustment and adaptation to a very different world that awaits." Jason Hamlin, (site accessed Dec 2008)

Tesco to become world no. 2 retailer by 2012  Britain's Tesco will overtake France's Carrefour within the next five years to become the world's second-biggest retailer by turnover behind U.S. group Wal-Mart ... Grocery market researchers IGD forecast Tesco would achieve compound annual growth of 11 percent between 2007 and 2012, led by expansion in China, the United States and India, and boosting its annual turnover to $157.1 billion by the end of the period. (site accessed Dec 2008)

12 thoughts on the economy in 2012   "As we near the end of the week when IDE editors offer you predictions – and actionable ideas – on the next four years, here are a handful of my thoughts on the world of 2012… assuming, that is, the Mayan thing with 2012 doesn’t come true… something about 12-21-12 ... In 2012, for some reason, the US is a much happier place. Except for the mushroom cloud of hate that continues to rise from the Appalachian Belt, the shouting has stopped. We finally learned that most people do not invite the bad things that happed to them. Today, as a culture, we save more and consume less. We no longer let mass-media prophets and self-serving politicians pit us against one another… we refuse to allow them to infect us in the way they made our parents bitter and scared ..." (site accessed Nov 2008)

Global Market for Disposable Baby Diapers to Reach $26.6 Billion by 2012   " ... The market for disposable baby diapers is saturated and mature in developed regions .... This flat to stagnant trend will be offset by demand from growing geographies such as Asia-Pacific and Latin America. Although China's annual births total a staggering 20 million, the market for diapers is still in its infancy ..." (site accessed October 2008)

Back from the future: Gold in January 2012   " ... Jan. 21, 2012 (AP) For the fifteenth straight day, the price of gold rose on record-setting volume, reaching a milestone few believed possible just a few short years ago. Roaring inflation and a fading U.S. dollar, combined with the continuing stress and uncertainty of World War III, pushed gold past the psychological barrier of $5,000 (to gold bugs, the “Big Nickel”), to close at $5,108 per ounce. Gold is now up an astonishing 66% since December 31, matching its percentage ascent of January 1980 ..." Jeff Clark, (site accessed Oct 2008)

Top 10 Hot Careers in 2012: Space Tourism to Genetic Counselling   "In our information-rich society there is an ever increasing demand for workers in the fields of computers, health care, science and space technology—much of it driven by the demands of the retiring baby boomers. If you like to plan ahead, here is sampling of some of the jobs that will be hot in the next several years and beyond ..." Rebecca Sato, (site accessed Aug 08)
See also: Where will the jobs be in 2012?   "The help wanted ads of 2012 will have a scant resemblance to today’s classifieds. Job titles more common in sci-fi novels such as space tour guide and molecular engineer will soon become common place ... It’s no longer warm and fuzzy. Lifelong learning will be a forced march. If you stop learning, you will become unemployed and unemployable very quickly ..." (site accessed Aug 2007)

World Bank sees food prices high until 2012   "World Bank President Robert Zoellick said ... he expected food prices to remain above 2004 levels until at least 2012 and energy prices would also remain high and volatile. He repeated that with food and fuel prices in a "danger zone" there was a need for $10 billion to provide food and cash handouts for the world's poorest ..." (site accessed July 2008)

World population to hit 7 billion in 2012    "The world's population will reach 7 billion in 2012, even as the global community struggles to satisfy its appetite for natural resources, according to a new government projection. There are 6.7 billion people in the world today. ... The world's population surpassed 6 billion in 1999, meaning it will take only 13 years to add a billion people. By comparison, the number of people didn't reach 1 billion until 1800, said Carl Haub, a demographer at the Population Reference Bureau. It didn't reach 2 billion until 130 years later ..." (site accessed June 2008)

World gambling revenue to top $155B in 2012   "Global gambling revenue is estimated to pass $155 billion in 2012 after growing at an annually compounded rate of 6.5 percent per year, according to a PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP report released Wednesday. Gambling revenue is expected to rise from nearly $114 billion in 2007 because of new casinos and upgrades to existing ones around the world ..." (site accessed June 2008)

New 2012 deadline set to rid world of chemical weapons   "A body set up to rid the world of chemical weapons agreed on Saturday a new global deadline of 2012, after admitting that Albania is the only country to have completely destroyed its stock ... The United States, Russia, India and Libya, with some of the largest stockpiles, previously had individual deadlines, some of them earlier than 2012, but have signed up to the revised founding treaty ... The treaty has to-date been ratified by 183 countries representing 98 percent of the world's population. Twelve states have yet to sign or ratify, including five in the Middle East -- Israel, Egypt, Syria, Lebanon and Iraq ..." (site accessed April 2008)

Online sales to reach £44.5 billion by 2012   " ... By 2012, online sales are predicted to make up 14 per cent of retail expenditure, equating to £44.5bn. Verdict director of consulting Neil Saunders says: “Internet retailing seems to be laughing in the face of the economic slowdown. While more muted consumer sentiment may have a slight downward impact on online growth rates, the Internet seems much better placed than physical locations to weather the storm.” (site accessed Apr 2008)

See also: Online sales to hit $1 trillion by 2012   "Last year, Leadpile predicted online sales would hit $1 Trillion by 2012 — which at this point appears to be extremely unlikely given current and past trends. The company says 'Super Kids in Digital Space' are going to dramatically change the landscape of the entire United States culture, including the way we use the Internet and Computers. Leadpile believes that this new, young, super Internet and wireless consumer, will drive wireless technology, online sales, and our entire culture to levels very few people have even dreamed possible, resulting in a dramatic shift in our lives, and change the way we buy and consume goods and services forever.'" (site accessed Apr 2006)

By 2012, women will outnumber men online by more than 8 million " ... American women are the largest economy on earth. Put those two stats together with the possibilities of the Internet - your PC and my PC is just as powerful as anybody else’s - and you’ve got a revolution to be reckoned with ..." (site accessed Apr 2008)

Emirates set to be world's largest long-haul airline by 2012   " Emirates airlines is set to become the largest long-haul airline in the world, when the 16.7 million passengers it carried in 2006 grows to 33 million by 2012, according to company officials. And the airline achieved a new high last week when it flew to its 100th destination, touching down in Cape Town, South Africa ... (site access Apr 2008)

Wealth held by rich investors with assets of over $1million set to grow by 50% by 2012   "Wealth held by rich investors with assets over $1 million is set to grow 50 percent in the next five years to $75 trillion, according to a report ...The study by management consultancy Oliver Wyman found that the annual growth rate of wealth held by high net worth individuals is expected to slow to nine percent in the next five years as tougher market environment bites. Global wealth held by rich clients grew by an annual 12 percent over the past five years to 2007 to $50 trillion thanks to a bull run in stock markets (site accessed Mar 2008)

2012: 21 million of the working poor have insurance  "Opportunity International, one of the world’s largest microfinance organizations, today announced it has received a $24.2 million grant from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. The funding will help Opportunity International’s subsidiary, the Micro Insurance Agency, greatly expand its insurance products to the poor in Africa, Asia and Latin America and will enable the world’s first stand-alone microinsurance agency to enter 11 new countries and provide life, health and crop insurance to 21 million poor people by 2012 ..." (site accessed Feb 2008) 

A letter from a Norwegian politician "I am a Norwegian politician. I would like to say that difficult things will happen from the year 2008 till the year 2012. The Norwegian government is building more and more underground bases and bunkers. When asked, they simply say that it is for the protection of the people of Norway. When I enquire when they are due to be finished, they reply “before 2011”. Israel is also doing the same and many other countries too ... " Article goes on to say that Planet X is coming and only the elite will be saved. (site accessed Jan 2008)

Mobile music revenues to approach $18 billion by 2012  "Mobile subscriptions which offer unlimited music downloads on a rental basis are expected to surge in popularity and will provide the majority of mobile revenues derived from original recordings, according to a recent report from Juniper Research. According to the report, the market for subscription-based music rental services will reach $3.3 billion by 2012, eclipsing the market for paid-for original recordings ... (site accessed Jan 2008)

Tesco set for £30bn global expansion by 2012   "Tesco's turnover will increase by £30bn to almost £74bn within five years, and store numbers will double, as rapid overseas expansion fuels growth, according to new research by international food and grocery expert IGD. IGD’s Trading With Tesco report predicts that the retailer will be boosted by store openings in the United States and Asia over the next five years ..." (site accessed Jan 2008)

Online dating in 2012   " ... In the future, dating sites will pay singles for the priviledge of displaying their profile. The idea of paying to belong to a specific site will seem quaint. Sites bidding for profiles will be the norm ..." (site accessed Oct 2007)

Black Sea oil pipeline by 2012   "Five southern European countries and the Commission signed a declaration on 3 April 2007 to build a pipeline to bring oil from the Black Sea to central European markets by 2012, in a move aimed at reducing the EU's energy dependence. The agreement to link the Black Sea port of Constanta (Romania) and the oil hub of Trieste (Italy) was signed in Zagreb by ministers from Italy, Croatia, Slovenia, Serbia and Romania and Energy Commissioner Andris Piebalgs. The pipeline is expected to be completed in 2012 and has an estimated cost of up to €2.6 billion, according to financial experts ..." (site accessed Apr 2007)

Cashless society by 2012   " ... Paying for goods with notes and coins could be consigned to history within five years, according to the chief executive of Visa Europe. Peter Ayliffe said that, by 2012, using credit and debit cards should be cheaper and more convenient than cash. Some retailers could soon start surcharging customers if they choose to buy products with cash, because of the greater cost of processing these payments, he warned. ... " The Independent (site accessed Mar 2007)

SMS revenue to reach $67 bn by 2012   " ... A report by Portio Research, entitled Mobile Messaging Futures 2007-2012, found that SMS generated $47.5bn worldwide in 2006, and is predicted to reach $52.5bn in 2007. A projected 3.7 trillion messages being sent annually by 2012 will push this revenue to $67bn ..." itweek (site accessed Feb 2007)
See also: Asia's text messaging mania   " ... Portio analyst John White stated there will be estimated 1.4 billion additional mobile phone users in Asia by 2012, and SMS revenue in the region will mushroom from $16 billion in 2006, up to $22.7 billion in 2012. John White added that regional SMS traffic within the same period will spike sharply from 967.7 billion in 2006 to a staggering 2,071 billion messages by 2012...." (site accessed Mar 2007)

Online revenue to increase tenfold by 2012  "Online television, film and video revenue from legitimate portals is set to increase almost tenfold to $6.3 billion by 2012 ... The popularity of such sites as YouTube, MySpace, GoogleVideo and Apple's iTunes Video is set to see spending grow as viewers ditch linear television in favor of interactive entertainment, according to a report from business information group Informa Telecoms and Media ..." (site accessed Jan 2007)

Cities in 2012   
Chart showing number of buildings over 500 feet in 2012 in Dubai, Tel Aviv, Miami, London, Las Vegas and Busan (from Wired Magazine). (site accessed November 2006).

Exodus of female IT workers by 2012   
"Nearly half of the female IT workforce will deplete over the next five years, as growing numbers independently exploit business opportunities, cutting-edge research and creative ideas.... The exodus will increase the risk of “project, business and professional failure” for organisations which fail to intake enough women - and their unique skills - into their ranks." (site accessed November 2006)

Anti-diabetic drug sales expected to grow dramatically by 2012   "Overall, anti-diabetic drugs sales are expected to grow dramatically over the next five years to over US$22 billion in 2012 as the addressable patient population continues to increase and new, oral, injectable and pulmonary premium priced products enter the market to address high unmet clinical needs." Genetic Engineering News (site accessed Aug 2006)

The United Nations Literacy Decade (2003-2012) aims to extend the use of literacy to those who do not currently have access to it. Over 861 million adults are in that position, and over 113 million children are not in school and therefore not gaining access to literacy either. The Decade will focus on the needs of adults with the goal that people everywhere should be able to use literacy to communicate within their own community, in the wider society and beyond. Literacy efforts have so far failed to reach the poorest and most marginalised groups of people – the Decade will particularly address such populations, under the banner of Literacy for all: voice for all, learning for all. (site accessed Feb 2006)


back to politics, social and economics (other countries)